Sep 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM UTC · 506 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 506 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. The favorite flipped: Gremio opened favored at 2.59 (+159), but by the last snapshot Vasco da Gama was the favorite at 2.18 (+118). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Gremio 37% → 26%, draw 29% → 30%, Vasco da Gama 34% → 44%. The Asian handicap moved from Gremio 0 to Gremio +0.25. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 45 minutes before kickoff: Vasco da Gama went from 42% to 44% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Gremio
2.59 (+159)
3.71 (+271)
Draw
3.30 (+230)
3.26 (+226)
Vasco da Gama
2.79 (+179)
2.18 (+118)
Asian handicap
Gremio 0 · 1.85 (-117)
Gremio +0.25 · 2.04 (+104)
Total
O/U 2.25 · over 1.83 (-120)
O/U 2.25 · over 1.85 (-118)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Gremio
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.25)
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