Sep 8, 2026 · 4:45 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. NEC Nijmegen opened as the favorite at 1.55 (-182) and drifted to 1.99 (-101). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): NEC Nijmegen 61% → 49%, draw 22% → 25%, Excelsior 17% → 26%. The Asian handicap moved from NEC Nijmegen -1 to NEC Nijmegen -0.5. The total moved down from 3.5 to 3. The sharpest single move came 55 minutes before kickoff: NEC Nijmegen went from 55% to 51% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
NEC Nijmegen
1.55 (-182)
1.99 (-101)
Draw
4.37 (+337)
3.80 (+280)
Excelsior
5.53 (+453)
3.73 (+273)
Asian handicap
NEC Nijmegen -1 · 1.86 (-116)
NEC Nijmegen -0.5 · 2.00 (+100)
Total
O/U 3.5 · over 1.95 (-105)
O/U 3 · over 1.99 (-101)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · NEC Nijmegen
Total (over/under)
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