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Deportivo Toluca vs Atlas — odds movement

Sep 12, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Deportivo Toluca opened as the favorite at 1.50 (-201) and shortened to 1.38 (-261). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Deportivo Toluca 63% → 70%, draw 22% → 19%, Atlas 15% → 11%. The Asian handicap moved from Deportivo Toluca -1 to Deportivo Toluca -1.5. The total stayed at 3. The sharpest single move came 50 minutes before kickoff: Deportivo Toluca went from 65% to 67% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Deportivo Toluca1.50 (-201)1.38 (-261)
Draw4.34 (+334)5.07 (+407)
Atlas6.32 (+532)8.45 (+745)
Asian handicapDeportivo Toluca -1 · 1.81 (-124)Deportivo Toluca -1.5 · 2.06 (+106)
TotalO/U 3 · over 2.00 (+100)O/U 3 · over 1.94 (-106)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
1%27%54%80%Deportivo Toluca 70%Draw 19%Atlas 11%
Asian handicap · Deportivo Toluca
-1.5-1.25-1-1 → -1.5
Total (over/under)
2.7533 → 3

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).