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⚽ Soccer Japan - J League Final

FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus — odds movement

Sep 19, 2026 · 7:00 PM JST · 479 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 479 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. FC Tokyo opened as the favorite at 1.74 (-135) and shortened to 1.56 (-180). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): FC Tokyo 55% → 62%, draw 23% → 21%, Nagoya Grampus 23% → 17%. The Asian handicap moved from FC Tokyo -0.75 to FC Tokyo -1. The total moved down from 3 to 2.75. The sharpest single move came 5 h 40 min before kickoff: FC Tokyo went from 56% to 59% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
FC Tokyo1.74 (-135)1.56 (-180)
Draw4.15 (+315)4.61 (+361)
Nagoya Grampus4.20 (+320)5.61 (+461)
Asian handicapFC Tokyo -0.75 · 1.96 (-104)FC Tokyo -1 · 1.95 (-105)
TotalO/U 3 · over 2.01 (+101)O/U 2.75 · over 1.95 (-105)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
9%29%50%70%FC Tokyo 62%Draw 21%Nagoya Grampus 17%
Asian handicap · FC Tokyo
-1-0.75-0.75 → -1
Total (over/under)
2.7533 → 2.75

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).