Oct 11, 2026 · 4:30 PM UK · 647 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 647 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Manchester City opened as the favorite at 2.52 (+152) and shortened to 2.14 (+114). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Liverpool 36% → 28%, draw 26% → 26%, Manchester City 38% → 45%. The Asian handicap moved from Liverpool 0 to Liverpool +0.25. The total stayed at 3. The sharpest single move came 49 h 25 min before kickoff: Manchester City went from 40% to 42% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Liverpool
2.69 (+169)
3.43 (+243)
Draw
3.78 (+278)
3.71 (+271)
Manchester City
2.52 (+152)
2.14 (+114)
Asian handicap
Liverpool 0 · 2.02 (+102)
Liverpool +0.25 · 2.06 (+106)
Total
O/U 3 · over 1.92 (-109)
O/U 3 · over 2.15 (+115)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Liverpool
Total · no change in the recorded window (3)
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