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⚽ Soccer Italy - Serie A Final

Lazio vs Monza — odds movement

Oct 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM UTC · 623 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 623 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Lazio opened as the favorite at 1.60 (-168) and drifted to 1.77 (-130). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Lazio 60% → 55%, draw 23% → 25%, Monza 17% → 20%. The Asian handicap moved from Lazio -1 to Lazio -0.75. The total moved up from 2.5 to 2.75.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Lazio1.60 (-168)1.77 (-130)
Draw4.18 (+318)3.89 (+289)
Monza5.84 (+484)4.75 (+375)
Asian handicapLazio -1 · 2.07 (+107)Lazio -0.75 · 2.00 (+100)
TotalO/U 2.5 · over 1.87 (-115)O/U 2.75 · over 1.99 (-101)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
9%29%48%68%Lazio 55%Draw 25%Monza 20%
Asian handicap · Lazio
-1-0.75-1 → -0.75
Total (over/under)
2.52.752.5 → 2.75

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).