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Korfez Basket vs Esenler Erokspor — odds movement

Sep 28, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC · 92 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 92 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 7 h 50 min before tip-off. The favorite flipped: Korfez Basket opened favored at 1.79 (-127), but by the last snapshot Esenler Erokspor was the favorite at 1.41 (-243). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Korfez Basket 51% → 36%, Esenler Erokspor 49% → 64%. The spread moved from Korfez Basket -1.5 to Korfez Basket +5. The total moved up from 164.5 to 171.5. The sharpest single move came 7 h 40 min before tip-off: Korfez Basket went from 51% to 46% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Korfez Basket1.79 (-127)2.55 (+155)
Esenler Erokspor1.88 (-114)1.41 (-243)
spreadKorfez Basket -1.5 · 1.87 (-115)Korfez Basket +5 · 1.85 (-117)
TotalO/U 164.5 · over 1.84 (-119)O/U 171.5 · over 1.75 (-133)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
30%43%57%70%Korfez Basket 36%Esenler Erokspor 64%
spread · Korfez Basket
-1.5+2+3+3.5+4+5-1.5 → +5
Total (over/under)
164.5166.5168169171.5172.5164.5 → 171.5

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The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.

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