Oct 16, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC · 482 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 482 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Heerenveen opened as the favorite at 1.66 (-151) and shortened to 1.55 (-181). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Heerenveen 57% → 62%, draw 23% → 20%, Excelsior 20% → 17%. The Asian handicap moved from Heerenveen -0.75 to Heerenveen -1. The total moved up from 3.25 to 3.5. The sharpest single move came 11 h 45 min before kickoff: Heerenveen went from 60% to 62% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Heerenveen
1.66 (-151)
1.55 (-181)
Draw
4.05 (+305)
4.71 (+371)
Excelsior
4.85 (+385)
5.51 (+451)
Asian handicap
Heerenveen -0.75 · 1.83 (-120)
Heerenveen -1 · 1.88 (-114)
Total
O/U 3.25 · over 1.88 (-114)
O/U 3.5 · over 2.05 (+105)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Heerenveen
Total (over/under)
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