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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks — odds movement

Oct 21, 2026 · 7:10 PM ET · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 35 min before tip-off. Orlando Magic opened as the favorite at 1.74 (-136) and drifted to 1.78 (-129). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Orlando Magic 56% → 55%, Atlanta Hawks 44% → 45%. The spread moved from Orlando Magic -2.5 to Orlando Magic -2. The total moved down from 235 to 234. The sharpest single move came 31 h 20 min before tip-off: Orlando Magic went from 55% to 58% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Orlando Magic1.74 (-136)1.78 (-129)
Atlanta Hawks2.20 (+120)2.19 (+119)
spreadOrlando Magic -2.5 · 1.93 (-108)Orlando Magic -2 · 1.93 (-108)
TotalO/U 235 · over 1.94 (-106)O/U 234 · over 1.95 (-105)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
39%46%54%61%Orlando Magic 55%Atlanta Hawks 45%
spread · Orlando Magic
-3.5-3-2.5-2-2.5 → -2
Total (over/under)
234235235.5236.5237235 → 234

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