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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks — odds movement

Oct 21, 2026 · 8:40 PM ET · 653 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 653 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 35 min before tip-off. Houston Rockets opened as the favorite at 1.27 (-364) and shortened to 1.26 (-390). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Houston Rockets 76% → 78%, Dallas Mavericks 24% → 22%. The spread moved from Houston Rockets -9 to Houston Rockets -10. The total moved up from 230 to 230.5.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Houston Rockets1.27 (-364)1.26 (-390)
Dallas Mavericks3.97 (+297)4.38 (+338)
spreadHouston Rockets -9 · 1.98 (-102)Houston Rockets -10 · 1.95 (-105)
TotalO/U 230 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 230.5 · over 1.95 (-105)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
12%37%63%88%Houston Rockets 78%Dallas Mavericks 22%
spread · Houston Rockets
-10-9.5-9-9 → -10
Total (over/under)
230230.5231.5230 → 230.5

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).