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Galatasaray vs Bursaspor — odds movement

Oct 12, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC · 146 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 146 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 12 h 25 min before tip-off. Galatasaray opened as the favorite at 1.50 (-199) and shortened to 1.19 (-516). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Galatasaray 61% → 75%, Bursaspor 39% → 25%. The spread moved from Galatasaray -4 to Galatasaray -8. The total stayed at 163.5. The sharpest single move came 20 minutes before tip-off: Galatasaray went from 68% to 75% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Galatasaray1.50 (-199)1.19 (-516)
Bursaspor2.32 (+132)3.58 (+258)
spreadGalatasaray -4 · 1.80 (-125)Galatasaray -8 · 1.90 (-111)
TotalO/U 163.5 · over 1.83 (-120)O/U 163.5 · over 1.81 (-123)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
16%39%61%84%Galatasaray 75%Bursaspor 25%
spread · Galatasaray
-8-6-5-4.5-4-4 → -8
Total · no change in the recorded window (163.5)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).