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⚽ Soccer Brazil - Serie A Final

Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama — odds movement

Oct 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Sao Paulo opened as the favorite at 2.06 (+106) and drifted to 2.44 (+144). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Sao Paulo 46% → 40%, draw 27% → 29%, Vasco da Gama 26% → 31%. The Asian handicap moved from Sao Paulo -0.5 to Sao Paulo -0.25. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 45 minutes before kickoff: Vasco da Gama went from 28% to 31% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Sao Paulo2.06 (+106)2.44 (+144)
Draw3.49 (+249)3.32 (+232)
Vasco da Gama3.60 (+260)3.10 (+210)
Asian handicapSao Paulo -0.5 · 2.07 (+107)Sao Paulo -0.25 · 2.09 (+109)
TotalO/U 2.25 · over 1.82 (-122)O/U 2.25 · over 1.86 (-116)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
23%32%41%50%Sao Paulo 40%Draw 29%Vasco da Gama 31%
Asian handicap · Sao Paulo
-0.5-0.25-0.5 → -0.25
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.25)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).