Oct 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Sao Paulo opened as the favorite at 2.06 (+106) and drifted to 2.44 (+144). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Sao Paulo 46% → 40%, draw 27% → 29%, Vasco da Gama 26% → 31%. The Asian handicap moved from Sao Paulo -0.5 to Sao Paulo -0.25. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 45 minutes before kickoff: Vasco da Gama went from 28% to 31% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Sao Paulo
2.06 (+106)
2.44 (+144)
Draw
3.49 (+249)
3.32 (+232)
Vasco da Gama
3.60 (+260)
3.10 (+210)
Asian handicap
Sao Paulo -0.5 · 2.07 (+107)
Sao Paulo -0.25 · 2.09 (+109)
Total
O/U 2.25 · over 1.82 (-122)
O/U 2.25 · over 1.86 (-116)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Sao Paulo
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.25)
Get the alert while the line is moving
The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.