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Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons — odds movement

Oct 23, 2026 · 8:10 PM ET · 85 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 85 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 41 h 15 min before tip-off. Miami Heat opened as the favorite at 1.72 (-138) and drifted to 1.78 (-128). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Miami Heat 56% → 54%, Detroit Pistons 44% → 46%. The spread held at Miami Heat -2.5 the whole way. The total moved up from 236.5 to 238. The sharpest single move came 40 h 5 min before tip-off: Miami Heat went from 56% to 54% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLatest
Miami Heat1.72 (-138)1.78 (-128)
Detroit Pistons2.22 (+122)2.13 (+113)
spreadMiami Heat -2.5 · 1.93 (-108)Miami Heat -2.5 · 2.01 (+101)
TotalO/U 236.5 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 238 · over 2.01 (+101)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
41%47%53%59%Miami Heat 54%Detroit Pistons 46%
spread · no change in the recorded window (-2.5)
Total (over/under)
236.5237.5238236.5 → 238

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).