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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat — odds movement

Oct 24, 2026 · 6:10 PM ET · 214 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 214 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 18 h 45 min before tip-off. Miami Heat opened as the favorite at 1.64 (-157) and drifted to 1.65 (-153). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Charlotte Hornets 41% → 41%, Miami Heat 59% → 59%. The spread moved from Charlotte Hornets +3.5 to Charlotte Hornets +4. The total moved down from 232.5 to 228. The sharpest single move came 8 h 55 min before tip-off: Miami Heat went from 58% to 56% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Charlotte Hornets2.39 (+139)2.41 (+141)
Miami Heat1.64 (-157)1.65 (-153)
spreadCharlotte Hornets +3.5 · 1.94 (-106)Charlotte Hornets +4 · 1.95 (-105)
TotalO/U 232.5 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 228 · over 1.93 (-108)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
37%46%54%63%Charlotte Hornets 41%Miami Heat 59%
spread · Charlotte Hornets
+2.5+3+3.5+4+3.5 → +4
Total (over/under)
228229230231232.5232.5 → 228

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).