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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets — odds movement

Oct 28, 2026 · 8:10 PM ET · 249 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 249 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 21 h 40 min before tip-off. Denver Nuggets opened as the favorite at 1.53 (-189) and drifted to 1.57 (-176). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): New Orleans Pelicans 37% → 38%, Denver Nuggets 63% → 62%. The spread held at New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 the whole way. The total moved up from 238.5 to 241. The sharpest single move came 21 h 35 min before tip-off: Denver Nuggets went from 63% to 65% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
New Orleans Pelicans2.65 (+165)2.57 (+157)
Denver Nuggets1.53 (-189)1.57 (-176)
spreadNew Orleans Pelicans +4.5 · 1.96 (-104)New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 · 1.97 (-103)
TotalO/U 238.5 · over 1.89 (-112)O/U 241 · over 1.94 (-106)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
29%43%57%71%New Orleans Pelicans 38%Denver Nuggets 62%
spread · New Orleans Pelicans
+4.5+5+5.5+4.5 → +4.5
Total (over/under)
238.5239.5240240.5241241.5238.5 → 241

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).