Closing line value (CLV): how to measure a bet against the final price
Closing line value, or CLV, is the gap between the odds you took and the odds the market settled on when betting closed. If you took 2.76 on a team and the price drifted to 2.19 by kickoff, you got a better price than the final one. That is positive CLV. If you took 1.45 and it closed at 1.69, the market moved away from you and your CLV is negative. The idea behind it is that the closing price carries the most information, because it absorbs lineup news, late money and every other opinion in the market. Beating it, over many bets, is a sign your timing or your estimates were ahead of the crowd.
This post shows the formula, works through a real price move from our own records, and then covers what CLV can and cannot tell you.
The formula
Take your odds and the closing odds in decimal form:
CLV = your odds ÷ closing odds − 1
- Above 0: you took a longer price than the close.
- Exactly 0: you took the closing price.
- Below 0: the close was longer than your price.
Because bookmaker margin is baked into both numbers, many people strip the margin from the closing price first. You do that the same way as in our implied probability post: convert every outcome to 1 ÷ odds, add them up, and divide each by the total. The closing odds you compare against are then 1 ÷ the margin-free probability. Both versions are shown below.
A real price move: CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow
On October 3, 2026 we tracked the KHL game CSKA Moscow vs HC Dynamo Moscow (face-off 14:00 UTC). The prices are decimal, from our five-minute snapshots of the international market.
| Time (UTC) | CSKA | Dynamo | CSKA chance (margin removed) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 19:37 (first snapshot) | 1.45 | 2.76 | 65.6% |
| Oct 3, 04:42 | 1.56 | 2.44 | 61.0% |
| Oct 3, 13:42 (last snapshot before the start) | 1.69 | 2.19 | 56.4% |
The price moved one way, steadily, over about 18 hours: CSKA drifted from 1.45 to 1.69 and Dynamo shortened from 2.76 to 2.19. That is a 9.1 percentage point swing in CSKA’s chance, from 65.6% down to 56.4%.
Two people, two outcomes
Someone who took Dynamo at 2.76 in the first snapshot:
- Raw comparison: 2.76 ÷ 2.19 − 1 = 0.260, so +26.0%.
- Margin-free closing price: the closing probabilities are 1÷1.69 = 59.2% and 1÷2.19 = 45.7%, which add up to 104.8%. Dynamo’s margin-free chance is 45.7 ÷ 104.8 = 43.6%, so fair closing odds are 1 ÷ 0.436 = 2.30. Then 2.76 ÷ 2.30 − 1 = +20.2%.
Someone who took CSKA at 1.45 in the first snapshot:
- Raw comparison: 1.4484 ÷ 1.6897 − 1 = −14.3%.
- Against the margin-free close (CSKA 56.4%, fair odds 1.77): 1.4484 ÷ 1.7716 − 1 = −18.2%.
Same game, same moment, opposite CLV. Notice that neither number says who won the game. We are deliberately not quoting the final score here: CLV is judged before the game is played, and a single result does not turn a good price into a bad one.
What CLV is good for
- Judging process without waiting for results. Win/loss is noisy. After 50 bets at around even odds, a perfectly fair bettor’s hit rate can easily sit anywhere between roughly 40% and 60%. Average CLV over the same 50 bets is a less jumpy measure.
- Comparing timing. If the price on a certain type of game tends to shorten after you take it, early prices may be your edge. If it tends to drift away, you may be taking them too soon. Our post on why odds move covers the causes, and dropping odds tracks them live.
- Sanity-checking an estimate. Our value bets post explains why your own probability is the hard part. If your “value” bets consistently close at worse prices, your estimate may be less informed than the market’s.
What CLV does not tell you
- Nothing about one game. A 26% price edge on one hockey game still lost if the favourite won. CLV is a long-run signal.
- Closing lines can be wrong. They are the best single estimate available, not a guarantee. Thin markets, such as small leagues with low limits, close on less information than a Premier League game does.
- It depends on which market you compare to. A line that closes at 2.19 at one book can close at 2.25 at another. Use one consistent reference when you compare yourself to anyone.
- Steam can fake it. If a price moves because one large bet landed, not because new information arrived, a bettor who followed it will show positive CLV without having been right about anything. That is part of why we describe movement in terms of reverse line movement and tickets versus money, not just direction.
How to use it on your own bets
Record the odds you took and the closing odds in a simple sheet, convert both to margin-free form, and average the CLV over a large number of bets before drawing any conclusion. Our bet tracker keeps the odds you took next to the result so the numbers are all in one place, and every price move quoted above can be checked against the public record. If your average CLV is near zero after hundreds of bets, the market is not giving you a view that beats its own closing price, whatever your short-term record says.
FAQ
What does closing line value mean?
It is the difference between the odds you took and the odds available when the market closed, usually at kickoff. If you took 2.76 and the price closed at 2.19, you had positive closing line value because you got a longer price than the final one.
Does positive CLV mean a bet will win?
No. CLV says the price was good by the market's final standard. It says nothing about the result of that one game. A bet with strong CLV can lose, and a bet with negative CLV can win.
How many bets do you need before CLV means something?
Hundreds. CLV is less noisy than win/loss because it does not depend on results, but a handful of bets can still land on one-sided price moves by luck. Look at the average over a large sample rather than a single game.