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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven — odds movement

Oct 11, 2026 · 2:00 PM UTC · 119 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 119 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 10 h 10 min before kickoff. Union Saint-Gilloise opened as the favorite at 1.25 (-403) and drifted to 1.26 (-380). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Union Saint-Gilloise 76% → 75%, draw 16% → 17%, Oud-Heverlee Leuven 8% → 8%. The Asian handicap held at Union Saint-Gilloise -1.75 the whole way. The total moved down from 3.25 to 3. The sharpest single move came 4 h 10 min before kickoff: Union Saint-Gilloise went from 77% to 76% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Union Saint-Gilloise1.25 (-403)1.26 (-380)
Draw6.02 (+502)5.69 (+469)
Oud-Heverlee Leuven12.11 (+1111)12.08 (+1108)
Asian handicapUnion Saint-Gilloise -1.75 · 1.91 (-110)Union Saint-Gilloise -1.75 · 2.03 (+103)
TotalO/U 3.25 · over 1.94 (-106)O/U 3 · over 1.84 (-119)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
-5%27%59%91%Union Saint-Gilloise 75%Draw 17%Oud-Heverlee Leuven 8%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-1.75)
Total (over/under)
33.253.25 → 3

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