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⚾ Baseball MLB Final

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres — odds movement

Sep 1, 2026 · 6:40 PM ET · 80 snapshots, every 5 minutes until first pitch

How the odds moved

We recorded 80 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 7 h 35 min before first pitch. San Diego Padres opened as the favorite at 1.76 (-132) and drifted to 1.78 (-128). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Cincinnati Reds 44% → 45%, San Diego Padres 56% → 55%. The run line held at Cincinnati Reds +1.5 the whole way. The total moved down from 9.5 to 9.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Cincinnati Reds2.22 (+122)2.18 (+118)
San Diego Padres1.76 (-132)1.78 (-128)
run lineCincinnati Reds +1.5 · 1.77 (-130)Cincinnati Reds +1.5 · 1.75 (-133)
TotalO/U 9.5 · over 2.00 (+100)O/U 9 · over 1.88 (-114)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
42%47%53%58%Cincinnati Reds 45%San Diego Padres 55%
run line · no change in the recorded window (+1.5)
Total (over/under)
99.59.5 → 9

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).