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⚽ Soccer Germany - Bundesliga Final

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — odds movement

Oct 10, 2026 · 1:30 PM UTC · 646 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 646 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 20 min before kickoff. Hoffenheim opened as the favorite at 1.44 (-225) and shortened to 1.44 (-226). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Hoffenheim 67% → 67%, draw 20% → 18%, Hamburger SV 14% → 14%. The Asian handicap held at Hoffenheim -1.25 the whole way. The total stayed at 3.5.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Hoffenheim1.44 (-225)1.44 (-226)
Draw4.92 (+392)5.25 (+425)
Hamburger SV7.03 (+603)6.74 (+574)
Asian handicapHoffenheim -1.25 · 1.89 (-112)Hoffenheim -1.25 · 1.90 (-111)
TotalO/U 3.5 · over 2.04 (+104)O/U 3.5 · over 1.99 (-101)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
3%28%53%78%Hoffenheim 67%Draw 18%Hamburger SV 14%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-1.25)
Total (over/under)
3.253.53.5 → 3.5

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