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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves — odds movement

Oct 21, 2026 · 7:40 PM ET · 653 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 653 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 35 min before tip-off. Miami Heat opened as the favorite at 1.93 (-108) and shortened to 1.82 (-122). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Miami Heat 50% → 54%, Minnesota Timberwolves 50% → 46%. The spread held at Miami Heat -1.5 the whole way. The total moved down from 242 to 241.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Miami Heat1.93 (-108)1.82 (-122)
Minnesota Timberwolves1.96 (-104)2.13 (+113)
spreadMiami Heat -1.5 · 2.01 (+101)Miami Heat -1.5 · 1.91 (-110)
TotalO/U 242 · over 1.86 (-116)O/U 241 · over 1.94 (-106)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
45%48%52%55%Miami Heat 54%Minnesota Timberwolves 46%
spread · Miami Heat
-1.5-1-1.5 → -1.5
Total (over/under)
239.5240240.5241241.5242242 → 241

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).