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⚽ Soccer Portugal - Primeira Liga Final

Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia — odds movement

Oct 24, 2026 · 2:30 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Estrela da Amadora opened as the favorite at 1.78 (-129) and drifted to 1.83 (-120). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Estrela da Amadora 53% → 53%, draw 26% → 27%, Casa Pia 21% → 20%. The Asian handicap moved from Estrela da Amadora -0.75 to Estrela da Amadora -0.5. The total stayed at 2.5. The sharpest single move came 20 minutes before kickoff: Estrela da Amadora went from 54% to 53% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Estrela da Amadora1.78 (-129)1.83 (-120)
Draw3.69 (+269)3.56 (+256)
Casa Pia4.56 (+356)4.76 (+376)
Asian handicapEstrela da Amadora -0.75 · 2.04 (+104)Estrela da Amadora -0.5 · 1.85 (-118)
TotalO/U 2.5 · over 1.95 (-105)O/U 2.5 · over 1.93 (-108)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
12%29%46%62%Estrela da Amadora 53%Draw 27%Casa Pia 20%
Asian handicap · Estrela da Amadora
-0.75-0.5-0.75 → -0.5
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.5)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).