Oct 15, 2026 · 4:45 PM UTC · 173 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 173 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 14 h 40 min before kickoff. Ajax opened as the favorite at 1.62 (-161) and drifted to 1.77 (-130). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Hajduk Split 19% → 23%, draw 22% → 23%, Ajax 59% → 54%. The Asian handicap moved from Hajduk Split +1 to Hajduk Split +0.75. The total stayed at 3. The sharpest single move came 40 minutes before kickoff: Ajax went from 58% to 55% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Hajduk Split
4.93 (+393)
4.23 (+323)
Draw
4.35 (+335)
4.15 (+315)
Ajax
1.62 (-161)
1.77 (-130)
Asian handicap
Hajduk Split +1 · 1.83 (-121)
Hajduk Split +0.75 · 1.90 (-111)
Total
O/U 3 · over 1.93 (-107)
O/U 3 · over 1.91 (-110)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Hajduk Split
Total (over/under)
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