Oct 25, 2026 · 3:45 PM UTC · 494 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 494 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Ajax opened as the favorite at 1.49 (-205) and shortened to 1.44 (-225). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Sparta Rotterdam 17% → 16%, draw 19% → 18%, Ajax 64% → 67%. The Asian handicap held at Sparta Rotterdam +1.25 the whole way. The total stayed at 3.5. The sharpest single move came 40 h 35 min before kickoff: Ajax went from 64% to 66% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Sparta Rotterdam
5.50 (+450)
6.19 (+519)
Draw
4.92 (+392)
5.42 (+442)
Ajax
1.49 (-205)
1.44 (-225)
Asian handicap
Sparta Rotterdam +1.25 · 1.83 (-121)
Sparta Rotterdam +1.25 · 1.97 (-103)
Total
O/U 3.5 · over 1.92 (-109)
O/U 3.5 · over 1.86 (-116)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (+1.25)
Total · no change in the recorded window (3.5)
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