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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury — odds movement

Sep 17, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET · 579 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 579 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 49 h 15 min before tip-off. Phoenix Mercury opened as the favorite at 1.87 (-115) and shortened to 1.66 (-152). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Portland Fire 49% → 42%, Phoenix Mercury 51% → 58%. The spread moved from Portland Fire +1 to Portland Fire +3. The total moved down from 175.5 to 172. The sharpest single move came 25 h 30 min before tip-off: Portland Fire went from 53% to 44% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

	First snapshot	Last before start
Portland Fire	1.95 (-105)	2.30 (+130)
Phoenix Mercury	1.87 (-115)	1.66 (-152)
spread	Portland Fire +1 · 1.89 (-112)	Portland Fire +3 · 1.93 (-108)
Total	O/U 175.5 · over 1.89 (-112)	O/U 172 · over 1.89 (-113)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig

spread · Portland Fire

Total (over/under)

Move timeline · UTC

01:42 Portland Fire moneyline 2.32 → 2.30
01:42 Total 171.5 → 172
01:27 Portland Fire moneyline 2.34 → 2.32
00:27 Portland Fire moneyline 2.36 → 2.34
00:27 Total 172.5 → 171.5
23:57 Portland Fire moneyline 2.32 → 2.35
23:27 Portland Fire moneyline 2.40 → 2.32
22:42 Portland Fire moneyline 2.37 → 2.40
21:57 Portland Fire moneyline 2.34 → 2.37
19:27 Portland Fire moneyline 2.36 → 2.34
18:12 Portland Fire moneyline 2.39 → 2.36
17:12 Portland Fire moneyline 2.37 → 2.39
16:42 Portland Fire moneyline 2.35 → 2.37
15:57 Portland Fire moneyline 2.31 → 2.35
15:57 spread (Portland Fire) +2.5 → +3
13:52 Total 172 → 172.5
13:22 Total 171 → 172
12:52 Portland Fire moneyline 2.26 → 2.30
12:22 Portland Fire moneyline 2.22 → 2.26
12:22 Total 172.5 → 171
12:07 Portland Fire moneyline 2.20 → 2.22
10:07 Total 171 → 172.5
03:37 Total 172 → 171
02:37 Portland Fire moneyline 2.15 → 2.18
02:37 Total 173.5 → 172
01:37 Portland Fire moneyline 2.17 → 2.15
00:32 Portland Fire moneyline 1.79 → 2.17
00:32 Total 175.5 → 173.5
00:32 spread (Portland Fire) -1.5 → +2.5
22:47 Portland Fire moneyline 1.76 → 1.79
22:17 Portland Fire moneyline 1.81 → 1.76
22:17 spread (Portland Fire) -1 → -1.5
16:47 Portland Fire moneyline 1.96 → 1.81
16:47 spread (Portland Fire) +1 → -1
16:17 Portland Fire moneyline 1.94 → 1.96

Where this data comes from

SharpPick samples the sharpest betting markets in the world every 5 minutes. Injuries, lineups and weather tend to reach the odds before the news, so a line that moves is usually money that moved. When a move is strong enough, the app issues a pick — and every pick is graded on the public record.

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