Scan with your phone camera Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen — odds movement
Oct 10, 2026 · 7:00 PM UTC · 122 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 122 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 10 h 25 min before kickoff. Ajax opened as the favorite at 1.38 (-266) and shortened to 1.33 (-306). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Ajax 70% → 72%, draw 16% → 15%, NEC Nijmegen 14% → 12%. The Asian handicap moved from Ajax -1.5 to Ajax -1.75. The total moved down from 4 to 3.75.
Opening vs closing odds
| First snapshot | Last before start | |
| Ajax | 1.38 (-266) | 1.33 (-306) |
| Draw | 5.91 (+491) | 6.21 (+521) |
| NEC Nijmegen | 6.71 (+571) | 7.70 (+670) |
| Asian handicap | Ajax -1.5 · 1.91 (-110) | Ajax -1.75 · 2.05 (+105) |
| Total | O/U 4 · over 2.03 (+103) | O/U 3.75 · over 1.95 (-105) |
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
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The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.
Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).