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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever — odds movement

Sep 27, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET · 590 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 590 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 49 h 25 min before tip-off. Las Vegas Aces opened as the favorite at 1.61 (-165) and shortened to 1.55 (-182). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Las Vegas Aces 60% → 62%, Indiana Fever 40% → 38%. The spread moved from Las Vegas Aces -3.5 to Las Vegas Aces -4. The total moved down from 182.5 to 181.5. The sharpest single move came 30 h 45 min before tip-off: Las Vegas Aces went from 58% to 56% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Las Vegas Aces1.61 (-165)1.55 (-182)
Indiana Fever2.36 (+136)2.55 (+155)
spreadLas Vegas Aces -3.5 · 1.91 (-110)Las Vegas Aces -4 · 1.89 (-112)
TotalO/U 182.5 · over 1.93 (-108)O/U 181.5 · over 1.89 (-113)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
33%44%56%67%Las Vegas Aces 62%Indiana Fever 38%
spread · Las Vegas Aces
-4-3.5-3-2-3.5 → -4
Total (over/under)
180.5181.5182.5182.5 → 181.5

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).