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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx — odds movement

Sep 29, 2026 · 8:30 PM ET · 579 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 579 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 48 h 30 min before tip-off. Minnesota Lynx opened as the favorite at 1.64 (-157) and shortened to 1.60 (-168). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): New York Liberty 42% → 40%, Minnesota Lynx 58% → 60%. The spread moved from New York Liberty +3 to New York Liberty +3.5. The total moved up from 172.5 to 173.5. The sharpest single move came 11 h 45 min before tip-off: New York Liberty went from 40% to 42% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
New York Liberty2.29 (+129)2.43 (+143)
Minnesota Lynx1.64 (-157)1.60 (-168)
spreadNew York Liberty +3 · 1.92 (-109)New York Liberty +3.5 · 1.97 (-103)
TotalO/U 172.5 · over 1.89 (-112)O/U 173.5 · over 1.93 (-108)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
36%45%55%64%New York Liberty 40%Minnesota Lynx 60%
spread · New York Liberty
+3+3.5+3 → +3.5
Total (over/under)
171.5172172.5173173.5174172.5 → 173.5

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).