Scan with your phone camera Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators — odds movement
Oct 3, 2026 · 7:07 PM ET · 336 snapshots, every 5 minutes until puck drop
How the odds moved
We recorded 336 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 28 h 5 min before puck drop. Toronto Maple Leafs opened as the favorite at 1.81 (-124) and drifted to 1.93 (-108). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Toronto Maple Leafs 54% → 51%, Ottawa Senators 46% → 49%. The puck line held at Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 the whole way. The total stayed at 6.
Opening vs closing odds
| First snapshot | Last before start | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 1.81 (-124) | 1.93 (-108) |
| Ottawa Senators | 2.10 (+110) | 1.98 (-102) |
| puck line | Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 · 3.01 (+201) | Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 · 3.27 (+227) |
| Total | O/U 6 · over 1.85 (-118) | O/U 6 · over 1.89 (-112) |
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).