Scan with your phone camera Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals — odds movement
Oct 3, 2026 · 7:07 PM ET · 146 snapshots, every 5 minutes until puck drop
How the odds moved
We recorded 146 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 12 h 15 min before puck drop. Tampa Bay Lightning opened as the favorite at 1.63 (-160) and shortened to 1.52 (-192). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Tampa Bay Lightning 60% → 64%, Washington Capitals 40% → 36%. The puck line held at Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 the whole way. The total moved up from 6 to 6.5. The sharpest single move came 7 h 55 min before puck drop: Washington Capitals went from 40% to 38% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
| First snapshot | Last before start | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 1.63 (-160) | 1.52 (-192) |
| Washington Capitals | 2.41 (+141) | 2.71 (+171) |
| puck line | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 · 2.58 (+158) | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 · 2.36 (+136) |
| Total | O/U 6 · over 1.85 (-117) | O/U 6.5 · over 2.06 (+106) |
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Get the alert while the line is moving
The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.
Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).