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🏒 Hockey NHL Final

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens — odds movement

Oct 3, 2026 · 7:07 PM ET · 336 snapshots, every 5 minutes until puck drop

How the odds moved

We recorded 336 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 28 h 5 min before puck drop. The favorite flipped: Montreal Canadiens opened favored at 1.79 (-126), but by the last snapshot Pittsburgh Penguins was the favorite at 1.95 (-105). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Pittsburgh Penguins 46% → 50%, Montreal Canadiens 54% → 50%. The puck line held at Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 the whole way. The total stayed at 6.5. The sharpest single move came 6 h 40 min before puck drop: Pittsburgh Penguins went from 47% to 49% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Pittsburgh Penguins2.12 (+112)1.95 (-105)
Montreal Canadiens1.79 (-126)1.95 (-105)
puck linePittsburgh Penguins +1.5 · 1.43 (-230)Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 · 1.38 (-264)
TotalO/U 6.5 · over 2.03 (+103)O/U 6.5 · over 1.92 (-109)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
43%48%52%57%Pittsburgh Penguins 50%Montreal Canadiens 50%
puck line · no change in the recorded window (+1.5)
Total · no change in the recorded window (6.5)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).