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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever — odds movement

Oct 1, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET · 563 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 563 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 47 h 15 min before tip-off. Las Vegas Aces opened as the favorite at 1.56 (-177) and shortened to 1.52 (-193). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Las Vegas Aces 61% → 63%, Indiana Fever 39% → 37%. The spread moved from Las Vegas Aces -4 to Las Vegas Aces -4.5. The total stayed at 181.5. The sharpest single move came 17 h 15 min before tip-off: Las Vegas Aces went from 63% to 64% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Las Vegas Aces1.56 (-177)1.52 (-193)
Indiana Fever2.45 (+145)2.63 (+163)
spreadLas Vegas Aces -4 · 1.91 (-110)Las Vegas Aces -4.5 · 1.93 (-108)
TotalO/U 181.5 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 181.5 · over 1.86 (-116)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
30%43%57%70%Las Vegas Aces 63%Indiana Fever 37%
spread · Las Vegas Aces
-5-4.5-4-4 → -4.5
Total (over/under)
180.5181.5181.5 → 181.5

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).