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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty — odds movement

Oct 4, 2026 · 2:00 PM ET · 578 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 578 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 48 h 25 min before tip-off. Atlanta Dream opened as the favorite at 1.58 (-173) and shortened to 1.53 (-190). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Atlanta Dream 60% → 63%, New York Liberty 40% → 37%. The spread moved from Atlanta Dream -3.5 to Atlanta Dream -5. The total moved down from 173.5 to 172.5.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Atlanta Dream1.58 (-173)1.53 (-190)
New York Liberty2.41 (+141)2.61 (+161)
spreadAtlanta Dream -3.5 · 1.88 (-114)Atlanta Dream -5 · 1.93 (-107)
TotalO/U 173.5 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 172.5 · over 1.86 (-116)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
31%44%56%69%Atlanta Dream 63%New York Liberty 37%
spread · Atlanta Dream
-5-4.5-3.5-3.5 → -5
Total (over/under)
172.5173.5173.5 → 172.5

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).