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🏀 Basketball WNBA Final

Golden State Valkyries vs Las Vegas Aces — odds movement

Oct 7, 2026 · 9:30 PM ET · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before tip-off. Golden State Valkyries opened as the favorite at 1.78 (-129) and shortened to 1.72 (-138). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Golden State Valkyries 54% → 56%, Las Vegas Aces 46% → 44%. The spread moved from Golden State Valkyries -1.5 to Golden State Valkyries -2. The total moved down from 158 to 156. The sharpest single move came 20 minutes before tip-off: Golden State Valkyries went from 53% to 56% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Golden State Valkyries1.78 (-129)1.72 (-138)
Las Vegas Aces2.07 (+107)2.18 (+118)
spreadGolden State Valkyries -1.5 · 1.89 (-112)Golden State Valkyries -2 · 1.88 (-114)
TotalO/U 158 · over 1.89 (-112)O/U 156 · over 1.91 (-110)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
42%47%53%58%Golden State Valkyries 56%Las Vegas Aces 44%
spread · Golden State Valkyries
-2-1.5-1.5 → -2
Total (over/under)
156157158158 → 156

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).