Sep 6, 2026 · 12:30 PM UTC · 233 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 233 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 19 h 40 min before kickoff. AZ Alkmaar opened as the favorite at 1.81 (-124) and drifted to 1.88 (-114). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Heerenveen 24% → 25%, draw 22% → 24%, AZ Alkmaar 53% → 51%. The Asian handicap moved from Heerenveen +0.75 to Heerenveen +0.5. The total moved up from 3.25 to 3.5. The sharpest single move came 35 minutes before kickoff: AZ Alkmaar went from 52% to 49% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Heerenveen
3.94 (+294)
3.85 (+285)
Draw
4.28 (+328)
4.10 (+310)
AZ Alkmaar
1.81 (-124)
1.88 (-114)
Asian handicap
Heerenveen +0.75 · 1.87 (-115)
Heerenveen +0.5 · 2.02 (+102)
Total
O/U 3.25 · over 1.92 (-109)
O/U 3.5 · over 1.96 (-104)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Heerenveen
Total (over/under)
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