Sep 11, 2026 · 6:45 PM UTC · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Fiorentina opened as the favorite at 2.42 (+142) and drifted to 2.63 (+163). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Venezia 31% → 35%, draw 29% → 28%, Fiorentina 40% → 37%. The Asian handicap moved from Venezia +0.25 to Venezia 0. The total stayed at 2.75. The sharpest single move came 12 h 55 min before kickoff: Fiorentina went from 42% to 38% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Venezia
3.12 (+212)
2.78 (+178)
Draw
3.35 (+235)
3.49 (+249)
Fiorentina
2.42 (+142)
2.63 (+163)
Asian handicap
Venezia +0.25 · 1.84 (-119)
Venezia 0 · 2.02 (+102)
Total
O/U 2.75 · over 2.05 (+105)
O/U 2.75 · over 1.80 (-125)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Venezia
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.75)
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