Sep 12, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 10 min before kickoff. Ajax opened as the favorite at 1.43 (-231) and shortened to 1.40 (-252). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Fortuna Sittard 15% → 13%, draw 19% → 18%, Ajax 66% → 69%. The Asian handicap moved from Fortuna Sittard +1.25 to Fortuna Sittard +1.5. The total stayed at 3.5. The sharpest single move came 6 h 60 min before kickoff: Ajax went from 68% to 69% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Fortuna Sittard
6.20 (+520)
7.30 (+630)
Draw
5.06 (+406)
5.40 (+440)
Ajax
1.43 (-231)
1.40 (-252)
Asian handicap
Fortuna Sittard +1.25 · 1.98 (-102)
Fortuna Sittard +1.5 · 1.86 (-116)
Total
O/U 3.5 · over 1.98 (-102)
O/U 3.5 · over 2.02 (+102)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Fortuna Sittard
Total (over/under)
Get the alert while the line is moving
The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.
Scan with your phone camera