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⚽ Soccer Italy - Serie A Final

Genoa vs Frosinone — odds movement

Sep 12, 2026 · 1:00 PM UTC · 653 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 653 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Genoa opened as the favorite at 2.16 (+116) and drifted to 2.39 (+139). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Genoa 45% → 41%, draw 29% → 29%, Frosinone 27% → 30%. The Asian handicap held at Genoa -0.25 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.5.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Genoa2.16 (+116)2.39 (+139)
Draw3.37 (+237)3.34 (+234)
Frosinone3.65 (+265)3.24 (+224)
Asian handicapGenoa -0.25 · 1.86 (-116)Genoa -0.25 · 2.05 (+105)
TotalO/U 2.5 · over 1.97 (-103)O/U 2.5 · over 1.83 (-121)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
23%32%40%48%Genoa 41%Draw 29%Frosinone 30%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (-0.25)
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.5)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).