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⚽ Soccer Italy - Serie A Final

Napoli vs Bologna — odds movement

Sep 13, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Napoli opened as the favorite at 1.82 (-122) and drifted to 1.92 (-109). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Napoli 53% → 51%, draw 26% → 27%, Bologna 21% → 22%. The Asian handicap moved from Napoli -0.75 to Napoli -0.5. The total moved up from 2.25 to 2.5. The sharpest single move came 9 h 10 min before kickoff: Napoli went from 52% to 50% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Napoli1.82 (-122)1.92 (-109)
Draw3.66 (+266)3.56 (+256)
Bologna4.71 (+371)4.41 (+341)
Asian handicapNapoli -0.75 · 2.08 (+108)Napoli -0.5 · 1.93 (-108)
TotalO/U 2.25 · over 1.87 (-115)O/U 2.5 · over 1.97 (-103)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
14%29%44%59%Napoli 51%Draw 27%Bologna 22%
Asian handicap · Napoli
-0.75-0.5-0.75 → -0.5
Total (over/under)
2.252.52.25 → 2.5

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