Sep 12, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 20 min before kickoff. AC Milan opened as the favorite at 2.32 (+132) and shortened to 2.11 (+111). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Lazio 29% → 24%, draw 29% → 30%, AC Milan 42% → 46%. The Asian handicap moved from Lazio +0.25 to Lazio +0.5. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 11 h 25 min before kickoff: AC Milan went from 42% to 45% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Lazio
3.36 (+236)
4.06 (+306)
Draw
3.29 (+229)
3.25 (+225)
AC Milan
2.32 (+132)
2.11 (+111)
Asian handicap
Lazio +0.25 · 1.92 (-109)
Lazio +0.5 · 1.83 (-121)
Total
O/U 2.25 · over 2.01 (+101)
O/U 2.25 · over 1.96 (-104)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Lazio
Total (over/under)
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