Scan with your phone camera Ajax vs Willem II — odds movement
Sep 15, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC · 122 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 122 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 10 h 25 min before kickoff. Ajax opened as the favorite at 1.13 (-800) and drifted to 1.13 (-798). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Ajax 86% → 86%, draw 9% → 9%, Willem II 6% → 5%. The Asian handicap moved from Ajax -2.5 to Ajax -2.75. The total stayed at 4. The sharpest single move came 4 h 5 min before kickoff: Ajax went from 87% to 85% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
| First snapshot | Last before start | |
| Ajax | 1.13 (-800) | 1.13 (-798) |
| Draw | 11.23 (+1023) | 10.51 (+951) |
| Willem II | 16.33 (+1533) | 18.09 (+1709) |
| Asian handicap | Ajax -2.5 · 1.92 (-109) | Ajax -2.75 · 2.03 (+103) |
| Total | O/U 4 · over 1.91 (-110) | O/U 4 · over 1.86 (-116) |
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Get the alert while the line is moving
The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.
Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).