Sep 18, 2026 · 6:45 PM UTC · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Sassuolo opened as the favorite at 2.35 (+135) and drifted to 2.55 (+155). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Monza 31% → 33%, draw 27% → 29%, Sassuolo 41% → 38%. The Asian handicap moved from Monza +0.25 to Monza 0. The total moved up from 2.5 to 2.75. The sharpest single move came 30 minutes before kickoff: Sassuolo went from 36% to 38% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Monza
3.09 (+209)
2.97 (+197)
Draw
3.53 (+253)
3.35 (+235)
Sassuolo
2.35 (+135)
2.55 (+155)
Asian handicap
Monza +0.25 · 1.88 (-114)
Monza 0 · 2.13 (+113)
Total
O/U 2.5 · over 1.85 (-118)
O/U 2.75 · over 1.99 (-101)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · Monza
Total (over/under)
Get the alert while the line is moving
The app sends an odds drop alert the moment a line moves, with the pick and that logic's measured hit rate.
Scan with your phone camera