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⚽ Soccer France - Ligue 1 Final

Monaco vs Toulouse — odds movement

Oct 10, 2026 · 6:45 PM UTC · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 30 min before kickoff. Monaco opened as the favorite at 1.58 (-171) and drifted to 1.65 (-155). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Monaco 61% → 59%, draw 21% → 23%, Toulouse 18% → 18%. The Asian handicap held at Monaco -1 the whole way. The total stayed at 3.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Monaco1.58 (-171)1.65 (-155)
Draw4.57 (+357)4.26 (+326)
Toulouse5.35 (+435)5.24 (+424)
Asian handicapMonaco -1 · 1.99 (-101)Monaco -1 · 2.08 (+108)
TotalO/U 3 · over 1.97 (-103)O/U 3 · over 1.88 (-114)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
10%29%49%69%Monaco 59%Draw 23%Toulouse 18%
Asian handicap · Monaco
-1-0.75-1 → -1
Total · no change in the recorded window (3)

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).