Oct 11, 2026 · 6:45 PM UTC · 650 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 650 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Marseille opened as the favorite at 1.93 (-107) and drifted to 2.06 (+106). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Troyes 26% → 26%, draw 24% → 26%, Marseille 50% → 47%. The Asian handicap held at Troyes +0.5 the whole way. The total stayed at 3. The sharpest single move came 11 h 10 min before kickoff: Marseille went from 49% to 46% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Troyes
3.78 (+278)
3.69 (+269)
Draw
3.95 (+295)
3.67 (+267)
Marseille
1.93 (-107)
2.06 (+106)
Asian handicap
Troyes +0.5 · 1.96 (-104)
Troyes +0.5 · 1.86 (-116)
Total
O/U 3 · over 1.98 (-102)
O/U 3 · over 2.12 (+112)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (+0.5)
Total · no change in the recorded window (3)
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