Oct 15, 2026 · 12:30 AM UTC · 506 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 506 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Palmeiras opened as the favorite at 2.69 (+169) and drifted to 2.74 (+174). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Fluminense 31% → 31%, draw 34% → 34%, Palmeiras 35% → 35%. The Asian handicap held at Fluminense 0 the whole way. The total moved up from 1.75 to 2. The sharpest single move came 13 h 15 min before kickoff: Fluminense went from 32% to 34% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Fluminense
3.04 (+204)
3.12 (+212)
Draw
2.83 (+183)
2.84 (+184)
Palmeiras
2.69 (+169)
2.74 (+174)
Asian handicap
Fluminense 0 · 2.05 (+105)
Fluminense 0 · 2.08 (+108)
Total
O/U 1.75 · over 1.79 (-126)
O/U 2 · over 2.03 (+103)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (0)
Total (over/under)
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