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⚽ Soccer Japan - J League Final

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka — odds movement

Oct 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM JST · 505 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 505 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 40 min before kickoff. Machida Zelvia opened as the favorite at 1.85 (-117) and shortened to 1.82 (-122). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Machida Zelvia 51% → 53%, draw 27% → 27%, Avispa Fukuoka 22% → 20%. The Asian handicap held at Machida Zelvia -0.5 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 4 h 45 min before kickoff: Machida Zelvia went from 52% to 50% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Machida Zelvia1.85 (-117)1.82 (-122)
Draw3.50 (+250)3.53 (+253)
Avispa Fukuoka4.39 (+339)4.91 (+391)
Asian handicapMachida Zelvia -0.5 · 1.86 (-116)Machida Zelvia -0.5 · 1.83 (-120)
TotalO/U 2.25 · over 1.84 (-119)O/U 2.25 · over 2.00 (+100)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
13%29%45%61%Machida Zelvia 53%Draw 27%Avispa Fukuoka 20%
Asian handicap · Machida Zelvia
-0.75-0.5-0.5 → -0.5
Total · no change in the recorded window (2.25)

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