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⚽ Soccer Japan - J League Final

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — odds movement

Oct 21, 2026 · 7:00 PM JST · 479 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 479 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Sanfrecce Hiroshima opened as the favorite at 1.48 (-209) and shortened to 1.43 (-232). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): V-Varen Nagasaki 16% → 14%, draw 20% → 19%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 64% → 67%. The Asian handicap moved from V-Varen Nagasaki +1 to V-Varen Nagasaki +1.25. The total moved down from 3 to 2.75.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
V-Varen Nagasaki5.84 (+484)6.79 (+579)
Draw4.79 (+379)5.20 (+420)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.48 (-209)1.43 (-232)
Asian handicapV-Varen Nagasaki +1 · 2.06 (+106)V-Varen Nagasaki +1.25 · 1.93 (-108)
TotalO/U 3 · over 2.01 (+101)O/U 2.75 · over 1.86 (-116)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
5%29%53%77%V-Varen Nagasaki 14%Draw 19%Sanfrecce Hiroshima 67%
Asian handicap · V-Varen Nagasaki
+1+1.25+1 → +1.25
Total (over/under)
2.7533 → 2.75

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).