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⚽ Soccer Japan - J League Final

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka — odds movement

Sep 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM JST · 506 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 506 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Sanfrecce Hiroshima opened as the favorite at 1.58 (-173) and drifted to 1.68 (-148). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Sanfrecce Hiroshima 60% → 58%, draw 22% → 22%, Cerezo Osaka 18% → 20%. The Asian handicap moved from Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1 to Sanfrecce Hiroshima -0.75. The total moved down from 3.25 to 3. The sharpest single move came 1 h 35 min before kickoff: Sanfrecce Hiroshima went from 61% to 57% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.58 (-173)1.68 (-148)
Draw4.39 (+339)4.31 (+331)
Cerezo Osaka5.15 (+415)4.80 (+380)
Asian handicapSanfrecce Hiroshima -1 · 1.99 (-101)Sanfrecce Hiroshima -0.75 · 1.87 (-115)
TotalO/U 3.25 · over 2.04 (+104)O/U 3 · over 1.93 (-107)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
8%29%50%72%Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58%Draw 22%Cerezo Osaka 20%
Asian handicap · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
-1-0.75-1 → -0.75
Total (over/under)
33.253.25 → 3

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).