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⚽ Soccer Japan - J League Final

Mito HollyHock vs Shimizu S-Pulse — odds movement

Oct 11, 2026 · 3:00 PM JST · 503 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff

How the odds moved

We recorded 503 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 42 h 25 min before kickoff. Shimizu S-Pulse opened as the favorite at 2.67 (+167) and shortened to 2.61 (+161). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Mito HollyHock 35% → 32%, draw 29% → 30%, Shimizu S-Pulse 36% → 37%. The Asian handicap held at Mito HollyHock 0 the whole way. The total stayed at 2.25. The sharpest single move came 2 hours before kickoff: Mito HollyHock went from 36% to 34% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Mito HollyHock2.73 (+173)2.99 (+199)
Draw3.25 (+225)3.18 (+218)
Shimizu S-Pulse2.67 (+167)2.61 (+161)
Asian handicapMito HollyHock 0 · 1.94 (-106)Mito HollyHock 0 · 2.10 (+110)
TotalO/U 2.25 · over 1.84 (-119)O/U 2.25 · over 2.04 (+104)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
27%31%35%39%Mito HollyHock 32%Draw 30%Shimizu S-Pulse 37%
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (0)
Total (over/under)
2.252.52.25 → 2.25

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