Oct 10, 2026 · 3:00 PM UK · 649 snapshots, every 5 minutes until kickoff
How the odds moved
We recorded 649 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 54 h 25 min before kickoff. Brighton opened as the favorite at 2.36 (+136) and drifted to 2.42 (+142). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Sunderland 32% → 32%, draw 27% → 28%, Brighton 41% → 40%. The Asian handicap held at Sunderland +0.25 the whole way. The total moved down from 2.75 to 2.5. The sharpest single move came 50 minutes before kickoff: Brighton went from 42% to 40% in five minutes.
Opening vs closing odds
First snapshot
Last before start
Sunderland
3.05 (+205)
3.01 (+201)
Draw
3.55 (+255)
3.51 (+251)
Brighton
2.36 (+136)
2.42 (+142)
Asian handicap
Sunderland +0.25 · 1.86 (-116)
Sunderland +0.25 · 1.83 (-120)
Total
O/U 2.75 · over 2.04 (+104)
O/U 2.5 · over 2.03 (+103)
Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.
Line movement chart
Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).
Win probability · no-vig
Asian handicap · no change in the recorded window (+0.25)
Total (over/under)
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