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🏀 Basketball NBA Final

Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns — odds movement

Nov 2, 2026 · 10:10 PM ET · 258 snapshots, every 5 minutes until tip-off

How the odds moved

We recorded 258 odds snapshots, one every 5 minutes, starting 22 h 25 min before tip-off. Golden State Warriors opened as the favorite at 1.54 (-184) and drifted to 1.75 (-133). No-vig win probability (the bookmaker margin removed): Golden State Warriors 63% → 56%, Phoenix Suns 37% → 44%. The spread moved from Golden State Warriors -4.5 to Golden State Warriors -3. The total stayed at 228. The sharpest single move came 13 h 35 min before tip-off: Golden State Warriors went from 61% to 58% in five minutes.

Opening vs closing odds

First snapshotLast before start
Golden State Warriors1.54 (-184)1.75 (-133)
Phoenix Suns2.61 (+161)2.22 (+122)
spreadGolden State Warriors -4.5 · 1.95 (-105)Golden State Warriors -3 · 2.01 (+101)
TotalO/U 228 · over 1.93 (-107)O/U 228 · over 1.99 (-101)

Decimal odds with American odds in brackets.

Line movement chart

Real market data sampled every 5 minutes. Win probability is shown with the bookmaker margin removed (no-vig).

Win probability · no-vig
32%44%56%68%Golden State Warriors 56%Phoenix Suns 44%
spread · Golden State Warriors
-4.5-3-4.5 → -3
Total (over/under)
226.5228228 → 228

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Information only — SharpPick does not take bets. Past moves do not predict results. 18+ (21+ where required).